Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.321611 0.367894 0.418182 0.476838 0.543338 0.616352 0.702560
2025-08-17 0.235678 0.292824 0.359881 0.444230 0.547358 0.669201 0.823948
2025-08-24 0.183627 0.246118 0.324784 0.430761 0.569470 0.744489 0.981719
2025-08-31 0.145232 0.209025 0.294789 0.417952 0.589648 0.819807 1.150945
2025-09-07 0.121966 0.187587 0.281367 0.424233 0.635292 0.934317 1.388540
2025-09-14 0.097431 0.159716 0.254087 0.406174 0.643553 0.997892 1.564307
2025-09-21 0.080762 0.140568 0.236284 0.398854 0.665887 1.084195 1.785029
2025-09-28 0.067133 0.123708 0.219086 0.389327 0.682723 1.163590 2.005367
2025-10-05 0.059750 0.116055 0.215627 0.401626 0.736549 1.308508 2.350350
2025-10-12 0.051693 0.105669 0.205642 0.400764 0.767227 1.418150 2.649660
2025-10-19 0.045702 0.098059 0.199369 0.405445 0.808090 1.550086 3.004462
2025-10-26 0.041064 0.092263 0.195532 0.413971 0.856981 1.702080 3.414401
2025-11-02 0.034364 0.081145 0.179807 0.397440 0.856740 1.765763 3.673619
2025-11-09 0.028333 0.070298 0.162813 0.375530 0.842429 1.800527 3.881988
2025-11-16 0.024392 0.063437 0.153205 0.367861 0.856761 1.894651 4.223514
2025-11-23 0.021013 0.057227 0.143973 0.359477 0.868246 1.984390 4.568200
2025-11-30 0.019070 0.054216 0.141682 0.366808 0.916229 2.158629 5.118452
2025-12-07 0.016219 0.048226 0.131101 0.352390 0.911286 2.215184 5.414524
2025-12-14 0.014223 0.044135 0.124558 0.346901 0.926936 2.320505 5.835968
2025-12-21 0.012412 0.040170 0.117623 0.339188 0.935799 2.410899 6.233842
2025-12-28 0.011576 0.038914 0.117783 0.350418 0.994852 2.629509 6.969089
2026-01-04 0.010411 0.036392 0.113947 0.349981 1.023001 2.775186 7.541691
2026-01-11 0.009535 0.034598 0.111905 0.354321 1.064832 2.960958 8.239857